This paper presents an analytical model of the aircraft departure process at an airport. The modeling procedure includes the estimation of unimpeded taxi-out time distributions and the development of a queuing model of the departure runway system based on the transient analysis of D/E/1 queuing systems. The parameters of the runway service process are estimated using operational data. Using the aircraft pushback schedule as input, the model predicts the expected runway schedule and takeoff times. It also estimates the expected taxi-out time, queuing delay, and its variance for each flight in addition to the congestion level of the airport, sizes of the departure runway queues, and the departure throughput. The proposed approach is illustrated using a case study based on Newark Liberty International Airport. The model is trained using data from 2011 and is subsequently used to predict taxi-out times in 2007 and 2010. The predictions are compared with actual data to demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the model.
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机译：本文提出了飞机在机场起飞过程的分析模型。建模过程包括对无障碍滑行时间分布的估计以及基于D / E / 1排队系统的瞬态分析开发出发跑道系统的排队模型。跑道服务过程的参数是使用运营数据估算的。使用飞机后推时间表作为输入，模型可以预测预期的跑道时间表和起飞时间。除了机场的拥挤程度，起飞跑道队列的大小和起飞吞吐量以外，它还估计每个航班的预期滑行时间，排队延迟及其方差。使用基于纽瓦克自由国际机场的案例研究说明了所提出的方法。该模型使用2011年的数据进行训练，随后用于预测2007年和2010年的滑行时间。将预测结果与实际数据进行比较，以证明该模型的预测能力。
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